tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6852368108205416562024-03-14T01:25:07.730+08:00VC's JunkThe greatest mistake you can make in life is to be continually fearing you will make one.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger109125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-685236810820541656.post-35181691912848596072014-09-12T14:06:00.000+08:002014-09-12T14:06:14.155+08:00Consumer Price Index (CPI)A Consumer Price Index (CPI) examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households, such as transportation, food and medical care. The Consumer Price Index in the United States is defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistic as a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Changes in Consumer Price Index are used to assess price changes associated with the cost of living.<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The annual percentage change in a Consumer Price Index is used as a measure of inflation.</div>
<div>
A Consumer Price Index can be used to index (i.e., adjust for the effect of inflation) the real value of wages, salaries, pensions, for regulating prices and for deflating monetary magnitudes to show changes in real values. In most countries, the Consumer Price Index is one of the most closely watched national economic statistics.</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-685236810820541656.post-25045496561359715352014-09-09T13:38:00.002+08:002014-09-09T18:59:04.327+08:00Gross Domestic Product (GDP)Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the primary economic indicators used to gauge the health of a country's economy over a specific time period, as well as to gauge a country's standard of living, you can think of it as the size of the economy. Usually, GDP is calculated on an quarterly or annual basis. It includes all of the private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports less imports that occur within a defined territory. For examples, if compared to the previous calculated GDP and it is up 2%, which mean that the economy has grown by 2%.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red; font-size: large;">GDP = C + G + I + (EXP - IMP)</span></b><br />
<br />
Here is a description of each GDP component:<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">C</span></b> (Consumption) - largest GDP component in the economy, consisting all private consumption, or consumer spending, in a nation's economy<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">G</span></b> (Government) - the total of the government spending<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">I</span></b> (Investment) - the total of all the country's business spending on capital<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">EXP</span></b> (Export) - the nation's total net exports<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">IMP</span></b> (Import) - the nation's total net importsUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-685236810820541656.post-31463671190453257342014-09-08T16:04:00.001+08:002014-09-09T19:03:24.294+08:00Basics of FOREX Theory<div style="color: #c80101; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; margin: 8px 0px; padding: 0px;">
<span style="color: red; font-family: Times;">Disclaimer: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading, and if necessary seek independent advice.</span></div>
<div style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16px; margin-bottom: 18px; padding: 0px; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12px;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="color: red;">Foreign Exchange Definition</span><span style="font-size: 12px;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12px;">
<b>Foreign exchange (Forex)</b> is the cross-country
exchange of currencies and is, single handedly, the largest and most liquid
financial market in the world. With an estimated $1.5 trillion in currencies
traded in a single day, it eclipses the trading of other types of commodities.
Unlike other commodity trading, Forex has no centralized exchange and is traded
primarily through banks, brokers, dealers, financial institutions and private
individuals. Due to this ability for financial institutions to trade Forex, the
Forex market is open 24 hours, 5 days a week (closes Saturday morning).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12px;">
Prior to the late 1990's, Forex trading was only the
practice for institutional traders and even though retail traders had access to
trade the Forex market, only recently has it become popular and more common for
individuals to trade Forex for profit. Most of the world's different country
currencies are free floating; meaning they retain an individual value and will
appreciate and depreciate against other currencies. Currencies are always
listed in pairs as they need another currency to benchmark against.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12px;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="color: red;">Reasons for Trading Forex</span><span style="font-size: 12px;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12px;">
Trading Forex has many purposes and you'll be surprised of
the many levels traded that impact you and you're not even be aware of it. For
every purchase you make, the contents, ingredients, by-products, parts or
materials may not necessarily be from a domestic source. It could have been
bought internationally and as such the exchange of foreign currency would have
had to be taken place.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12px;">
From a financial perspective, some people may trade the
Forex market for profit. By taking a cross currency pair, they may exchange
currency to a foreign designation hoping for domestic currency values to
depreciate, thus when you convert it back you will receive more than you
initially started.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12px;">
For international importer or exporter of goods and
services, there are great opportunities by having access to the international
market. However, with fluctuating international currency rates, payment can
sometimes be difficult. Initially companies make a sale for an agreed price,
then on the day of payment the agreed value is significantly less than agreed
to, due to a currency fluctuation is known as "foreign exchange
risk".</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12px;">
You will find all types of businesses, from large financial
institutions to small retail freight forwarders will practice foreign exchange
hedging. Simply put, these companies will put in place measure to ensure that
their agreed payment value will represent the same value at the day of payment
regardless of currency value fluctuations.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12px;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="color: red;">The Eight (8) Major Currencies</span><span style="font-size: 12px;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="font-size: 12px;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12px;">
Internationally, there are eight (8) currencies that are
traded more than other currencies. These are often referred to as
"Majors". These currencies are as follows:</div>
</div>
<ol style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 20px; list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 18px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px;">
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 18px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px;"><b style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">USD</b> - Unites States Dollar</li>
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 18px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px;"><b style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">JPY</b> - Japanese Yen</li>
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 18px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px;"><b style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">GBP</b> - British Pound</li>
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 18px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px;"><b style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">CAD</b> - Canadian Dollar</li>
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 18px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px;"><b style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">EUR</b> - European Currency Unit</li>
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 18px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px;"><b style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">CHF</b> - Switzerland Dollar</li>
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 18px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px;"><b style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">AUD</b> - Australian Dollar</li>
<li style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 18px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px;"><b style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">NZD</b> - New Zealand Dollar.</li>
</ol>
<div style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; margin-bottom: 18px; padding: 0px; text-rendering: optimizelegibility;">
Certain parts of the world have part of their Saturday to trade, as it's still Friday in other markets.<br />
Financial institution in these countries may be dealing with the Forex market during their work hours, the Forex market is open and trading 24 hours, 5 days a week. For someone living in the East Coast of Australia, the market hours for the corresponding markets are outlined below:</div>
<ul class="arrows" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 1.6; list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px 20px; padding: 0px;">
<li style="background-attachment: initial !important; background-clip: initial !important; background-image: url(https://my.hotforex.com/img/red_arrow.png) !important; background-origin: initial !important; background-position-x: 0%; background-position-y: 5px !important; background-repeat: no-repeat !important; background-size: initial !important; font-size: 12px; list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px; text-align: left;"><b style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">New York</b> session opens at 8:00pm and ends around 6:00am</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial !important; background-clip: initial !important; background-image: url(https://my.hotforex.com/img/red_arrow.png) !important; background-origin: initial !important; background-position-x: 0%; background-position-y: 5px !important; background-repeat: no-repeat !important; background-size: initial !important; font-size: 12px; list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px; text-align: left;"><b style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Sydney</b> session starts at 6:00am and ends around 4:00pm</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial !important; background-clip: initial !important; background-image: url(https://my.hotforex.com/img/red_arrow.png) !important; background-origin: initial !important; background-position-x: 0%; background-position-y: 5px !important; background-repeat: no-repeat !important; background-size: initial !important; font-size: 12px; list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px; text-align: left;"><b style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Tokyo</b> session begins at 7:00am and ends around 5:00pm</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial !important; background-clip: initial !important; background-image: url(https://my.hotforex.com/img/red_arrow.png) !important; background-origin: initial !important; background-position-x: 0%; background-position-y: 5px !important; background-repeat: no-repeat !important; background-size: initial !important; font-size: 12px; list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px; text-align: left;"><b>Europe</b> opens at 2:00pm and ends around 11:00pm.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial !important; background-clip: initial !important; background-image: url(https://my.hotforex.com/img/red_arrow.png) !important; background-origin: initial !important; background-position-x: 0%; background-position-y: 5px !important; background-repeat: no-repeat !important; background-size: initial !important; font-size: 12px; list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px; text-align: left;"><b style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">London</b> opens at 3:00pm and ends around 12:00am.</li>
</ul>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-685236810820541656.post-80020183225020109312014-09-03T12:21:00.002+08:002014-09-03T12:26:01.630+08:00How To Develop A Profitable Trading System<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">"Step 1: Select a market and a
timeframe<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Step 2: Define entry rules<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Step 3: Define exit rules<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Step 4: Evaluate your system<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Step 5: Improving the system<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Let’s take a closer look at these steps.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><b><span style="color: red;">Step 1: Select a market and a timeframe</span></b><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Every market and every timeframe can be
traded with a system. But if you want to look at 50 different futures markets
and 6 major timeframes (e.g. 5min, 10min, 15min, 30min, 60min and daily), then
you need to evaluate 300 possible options. Here are some hints on how to limit
your choices:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">· Though you can trade every futures
markets, I recommend that you stick to the electronic markets (e.g. e-mini
S&P and other indices, Treasury Bonds and Notes, Currencies, etc). Usually
these markets are very liquid, and you won’t have a problem entering and
exiting a trade. Another advantage of electronic markets is lower commissions:
Expect to pay at least half the commissions you pay on non-electronic markets.
Sometimes the difference can be as high as 75%.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">· When you select a smaller timeframes
(less than 60min) your average profit per trade is usually comparably low. On
the other hand you get more trading opportunities. When trading on a larger
timeframe your profits per trade will be bigger, but you will have less trading
opportunities. It’s up to you to decide which timeframe suits you best.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">· Smaller timeframes mean smaller profits,
but usually smaller risk, too. When you are starting with a small trading
account, then you might want to select a small timeframe to make sure that you
are not overtrading your account.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Most profitable trading systems use larger
timeframes like daily and weekly, but be prepared for less trading action and
bigger drawdowns.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><b><span style="color: red;">Step 2: Define entry rules</span></b><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Let’s simplify the myths of “entry rules”:
Basically there are 2 different kinds of entry setups:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">· Trend-following: When prices are moving
up, you buy, and when prices are going down, you sell.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">· Swing-trading: When prices are trading at
an extreme (e.g. upper band of a channel), you sell, and you try to catch the
small move while prices are moving back into “normalcy”.</span> The same applies for
selling.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US">In my opinion swing trading is actually one
of the best trading styles for the beginning trader to get his or her feet wet.
By contrast, trend trading offers greater profit potential if a trader is able
to catch a major market trend of weeks or months, but few are the traders with
sufficient discipline to hold a position for that period of time without
getting distracted.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Most indicators that you will find in your
charting software belong to one of these two categories: You have either
indicators for identifying trends (e.g. Moving Averages) or indicators that
define overbought or oversold situations and therefore offer you a trade setup
for a short term swing trade.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">So don’t become confused by all the
possibilities of entering a trade. Just make sure that you understand why you
are using a certain indicator or what the indicator is measuring. An example of
a simple swing trading strategy can be found in the next chapter.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><b><span style="color: red;">Step 3: Define exit rules</span></b><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Let’s keep it simple here, too: There are
two different exit rules you want to apply:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">· Stop Loss Rules to protect your capital
and<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">· Profit Taking Exits to realize your
profits<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Both exit rules can be expressed in four
ways:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">· A fixed dollar amount (e.g. $1,000)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">· A percentage of the current price (e.g.
1% of the entry price)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">· A percentage of the volatility (e.g. 50%
of the average daily movement) or<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">· A time stop (e.g. exit after 3 days)<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">I don’t recommend using a fixed doll</span>ar
amount, because markets are too different. For example, natural gas changes an
average of a few thousand dollars per day per contract; however, Eurodollars
change an average of a few hundred dollars a day per contract. You need to
balance and normalize this difference when developing a trading system and
testing it on different markets. That’s why you should always use percentages
for stops and profit targets (e.g. 1% stop) or a volatility stop instead of a
fixed dollar amount.<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">A time stop gets you out of a trade if it
is not moving in any direction, therefore freeing your capital for other
trades.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: red;"><b>Step 4: Evaluate your system</b></span><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">The first figure to look for is the net
profit. Obviously you want your system to generate profits. But don’t be
frustrated when during the development stage your trading system shows a loss;
try to reverse your entry signals. On our website www.rockwelltrading.com you
already learned that trading is a zero sum game: So if you are going long at a
certain price level, and you lose, then try to go short instead.</span><br />
Many times
this is the easiest way to turn a losing system into a winning one.<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">The next figure you want to look at is the
average profit per trade. Make sure this number is greater than slippage and
commissions, and that it makes your trading worthwhile. Trading is all about
risk and reward, and you want to make sure you get a decent reward for your
risk.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Take a look at the Profit Factor (Gross
Profit / Gross Loss). This will tell you how many dollars you are likely to win
for every dollar you lose. The higher the profit factor the better the system.
A system should have a profit factor of 1.5 or more, but watch out when you see
profit factors above 3.0, because it might be that you over-optimized the
system.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Here are some more characteristics you
might want to consider besides the net profit of a system:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">· Winning percentage<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Many profitable trading systems achieve a
nice net profit with a rather small winning percentage, sometimes even below
30%. These systems follow the principle “Cut your losses short and let your
profits run”. However, YOU need to decide whether you can stand 7 losers and
only 3 winners in 10 trades. If you want to be “right” most of the time, then
you should pick a system with a high winning percentage.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">· Number of Trades per Month<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Do you need daily action? If you want to
see something happening every day, then you should pick a trading system with a
high number of trades per month. Many profitable trading systems generate only
2-3 trades per month, but if you are not patient enough to wait for it, then
you should select a system with a higher trading frequency.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">· Average Time in Trade<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Some people get really nervous when they
are in a trade. I have heard of people who can’t even sleep at night when they
have an open position. If that’s you, then you should make sure that the
average time in a trade is as short as possible. You might want to choose a
system that does not hold any positions overnight.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">· Maximum Drawdown<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">A famous trader once said: “If you want
your system to double or triple your account, you should expect a drawdown of
up to 30% on your way to trading riches.” Not every trader can stand a 30%
drawdown. Look at the maximum drawdown the system produced so far, and double
it. If you can stand this drawdown, then you found the right system. Why
doubling? Remember: your worst drawdown is always ahead of you.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">· Most consecutive losses<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">The amount of most consecutive losses has a
huge impact on your trading, especially when you are using certain types of
money management techniques. Five or six consecutive losses can cause you a lot
of trouble when using an aggressive money management.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">In addition this number will help you to
determine whether you have enough discipline to trade the system: Will you
still trade the system after you have experienced 10 losses in a row? It’s not
unusual for a profitable trading system to have 10-12 losses in a row.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><b><span style="color: red;">Step 5: Improving your system</span></b><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">There is a difference between “improving”
and “curve-fitting” a system. You can improve your system by testing different
exit methods: If you are using a fixed stop, try a trailing stop instead. Add a
time stop and evaluate the results again. Don’t look only at the net profit;
look also at the profit factor, average profit per trade and maximum drawdown.
Many times you will see that the net profit slightly decreases when you add
different stops, but the other figures might improve dramatically.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Don’t fall into the trap of
over-optimizing: You can eliminate almost all losers by adding enough rules.
Example: If you see that on Tuesdays you had more losers than on the other
weekdays, you might be tempted to add a “filter” that prevents your system from
entering trades on Tuesdays. Next you find that in January you had much worse
results than in other months, so you add a filter that enters trades only from
February – December. You add more and more filters to avoid losses, and
eventually you end up with a trading rule that I saw recently:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">IF FVE > -1 And Regression Slope (Close
, 35) / Close.35 * 100 > -.35 And Regression Slope (Close , 35) / Close.35 *
100 < .4 And Regression Slope (Close , 70) / Close.70 * 100 > -.4 And
Regression Slope (Close , 70) / Close.70 * 100 < .4 And Regression Slope
(Close , 170) / Close.170 * 100 > -.2 And MACD Diff (Close , 12 , 26 , 9)
> -.003 And Not Tuesday And Not DayOfMonth = 12 and not Month = August and
Time > 9:30 …<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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losing (in the past) and this trading system is now producing fantastic
profits, it’s very unlikely that it will continue to do so when it hits
reality."<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-685236810820541656.post-57240600963936205112014-09-03T12:14:00.002+08:002014-09-03T12:29:12.066+08:00The 10 Power Principles of Successful Trading Systems<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">The 10 Power Principles of Successful
Trading Systems (10</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">個成功交易系統的威力規則</span><span lang="EN-US">)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: red;">Principle #1: Few rules - easy to
understand<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: red;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">規則一</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">:少規則、容易懂</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">It may surprise you that the best trading
systems have less than 10 rules. The more rules you have, the more likely you
"curve-fitted" your trading system to the past, and such an
over-optimized system is very unlikely to produce profits in real markets.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">你可能會驚訝於最好的交易系統其規則少於</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">條。規則愈多,你就有可能在針對過去歷史對你的交易系統做”曲線近似”</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">意即針對過去的少數失敗的交易加了很多濾網,以確保未來這些失敗交易不會發生,使得回測績效曲線美化</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,像這種過度優化的系統是相當不可能在真實的市場</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Lantinghei TC Heavy"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Lantinghei TC Heavy"; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Lantinghei TC Heavy";">產</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">生利潤的。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">It's important that your rules are easy to
understand and execute. The markets can behave very wildly and move fast, and
you won't necessarily have the time to calculate complicated formulas in order
to make a trading decision. Think about successful floor traders: The only tool
they use is a calculator, and they make thousands of dollars every day.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">規則容易懂並且容易執行是相當重要的。市場有可能非常狂野且快速,你不一定有時間為了交易決策去做複雜公式的計算。想想那些成功的”地板交易員”,他們僅靠著計算機就可以每天賺進數千美元。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: red;">Principle #2: Trade electronic and liquid
markets<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: red;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">規則二</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">:使用電子交易於活曜市場</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">We strongly recommend that you trade
electronic markets because the commissions are lower and you receive instant
fills. You need to know as fast as possible if your order is filled and at what
price, because based on this information you plan your exit. You should never
place an exit order before you know that your entry order is filled. When you
trade open outcry markets (non-electronic) you might have to wait a few minutes
before you receive your fill. By then the market might have already turned, and
your profitable trade become a loss!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">我們強烈建議你使用電子交易,因為佣金便宜而成交回報快速。你需要儘快知道你的單子是否成交及在什麼價位,因為基於這些資訊你要計畫你的出場。你應該永遠不在知道進場單成交之前就下出場單的單子。當你用人工單你需要等幾分鐘才能得到成交回報,屆時市場可能已經翻覆而你的有利潤的交易就變成損失。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">When trading electronic markets you receive
your fills in less than one second and can immediately place your exit orders.
Trading liquid markets you can avoid slippage, which will save you hundreds or
even thousands of dollars.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">當你用電子交易時你收到成交回報少於一秒鐘,因此能</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Lantinghei TC Heavy"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Lantinghei TC Heavy"; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Lantinghei TC Heavy";">夠</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">立即下你的出場單。於活曜市場交易,你可以避免滑價,這可以讓你省下數百甚至數千美元。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: red;">Principle #3: Make consistent profits<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: red;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">規則三</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">:賺取穩定利潤</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">You should always look for a trading system
that produces a nice and smooth equity curve, even if in the long run the net
profit is slightly smaller. Most professional traders prefer to take small
profits every day instead of big gains every now and then. If you trade for a
living, you need to pay your bills from your trading profits, and therefore you
should regularly deposit profits in to your trading account.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Making consistent profits is the secret of
successful traders!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">你應該找尋一個交易系統能</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Lantinghei TC Heavy"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Lantinghei TC Heavy"; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Lantinghei TC Heavy";">夠產</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">生好且平滑的利潤曲線,甚至在長期淨利是稍微少的。大多數職業交易員較喜歡每天賺取小利潤而不喜歡偶而賺大利潤。如果你是以交易為生,你需要從交易利潤裡支付生活開支,因此你應該有規律的賺取利潤在你的交易帳</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Lantinghei TC Heavy"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Lantinghei TC Heavy"; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Lantinghei TC Heavy";">戶</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">裡。賺取穩定利潤是成功交易者的祕密。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: red;">Principle #4: Maintain a healthy balance
between risk and reward<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: red;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">規則四</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">:在風險與報酬之間維持一個健康的平衡</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Let me give you an example: If you go to a
casino and bet everything you have on "red", then you have a 49%
chance of doubling your money and a 51% chance of losing everything. The same
applies to trading: You can make a lot of money if you are risking a lot, but
then risk of ruin is very high. You need to find a healthy balance between risk
and reward.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">我舉個例</span><span lang="EN-US"> : </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">如果你去賭場而賭你身上所有在”</span><span lang="EN-US">RED”</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">上,你有</span><span lang="EN-US">49</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">%機會將你的錢翻倍而有</span><span lang="EN-US">51</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">%的機會輸光所有。一樣的道理在交易上</span><span lang="EN-US"> : </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">你可以賺很多錢如果你冒很大風險,但毀滅的風險非常高。你需要在風險與報酬之間維持一個健康的平衡。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Let's say you define "ruin" as
losing 20% of your account, and you define "success" as making 20%
profits. Having a trading system with past performance results let you
calculate the "risk of ruin" and "chance of success". Your
risk of ruin should be always less than 5%, and your chance of success should
be 5-10 times higher, e.g. if your risk of ruin is 4%, then your chance of
success should be 40% or higher.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">假設</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Lantinghei TC Heavy"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Lantinghei TC Heavy"; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Lantinghei TC Heavy";">說</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">你定義”毀滅”為帳</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Lantinghei TC Heavy"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Lantinghei TC Heavy"; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Lantinghei TC Heavy";">戶</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">金額損失</span><span lang="EN-US">20</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">%,而你定義”成功”為賺取</span><span lang="EN-US">20</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">%利潤。用你的交易系統以過去的績效結果讓你計算”毀滅的風險”及”成功的機會”。你的毀滅風險應該總是少於</span><span lang="EN-US">5</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">%,而你的成功機會應該</span><span lang="EN-US">5-10</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">倍更高於毀滅風險,亦即如果你的風險是</span><span lang="EN-US">4</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">%,那你的成功機會應該是</span><span lang="EN-US">40</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">%或更高。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: red;">Principle #5:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Find a system that produces at least five
trades per week<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: red;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">規則五</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">:找個每週至少交易五次的系統</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">The higher the trading frequency the
smaller the chance of having a losing month. If you have a trading system that
has a winning percentage of 70%, but only produces 1 trade per month, then 1
loser is enough to have a losing month. In this example you could have several
losing months in a row before you finally start making profits. In the
meantime, how do you pay your bills?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">交易次數愈高,月虧損的機率愈低。如果你有一個交易系統勝率是</span><span lang="EN-US">70</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">%,但一個月只交易一次,那只要一次虧損,當月就是虧損。在這個例子裡你可能有連續幾個月的虧損在你最後開始賺錢之前。在這期間,你要如何支付你的帳單</span><span lang="EN-US">?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">If your trading system produces five trades
per week, then you have in average 20 trades per month. Having a winning
percentage of 70% - your chances of a winning month are extremely high. That's
the goal of all traders: Having as many winning months as possible.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">如果你的交易系統每週有</span><span lang="EN-US">5</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">次交易,你每月平均有</span><span lang="EN-US">20</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">個交易。以</span><span lang="EN-US">70</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">%的勝率,你當月賺錢的機率非常高。那是所有交易者的目標</span><span lang="EN-US"> : </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">賺錢月份盡可能的愈多愈好。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: red;">Principle #6: Start small - grow big<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: red;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">規則六</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">:由小而大</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Your trading system should allow you to
start small and grow big. A good trading system allows you to start with one or
two contracts, and then increases your position as your trading account grows.
This is in contrast to many "martingale" trading systems that require
increasing position sizes when you are in a losing streak.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">你的交易系統應該允許你由小開始而長大。一個好的交易系統允許你由一個或兩個合約開始,然後增加你的部位當你的交易帳</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Lantinghei TC Heavy"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Lantinghei TC Heavy"; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Lantinghei TC Heavy";">戶</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">長大。這是與許多需要於虧損期間增加部位的”加倍賭注”交易系統相反。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">You probably heard about this strategy:
Double your contracts every time you lose, and one winner will win back all the
money you previously lost. It's not unusual to have 4-5 losing trades in a row,
and this would already require you to trade 16 contracts after just 4 loss!
Trading the e-mini S&P you would then need an account size of at least
$63,200 just to meet the margin requirement. That's why martingale systems
don't work.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">你也許聽過這策略</span><span lang="EN-US"> : </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">加倍你的合約於每次你虧損時,一次就能贏回最近所有輸去的。連續</span><span lang="EN-US">4-5</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">次虧損交易是不尋常的,而這會使你需要去交易</span><span lang="EN-US">16</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">個合約在</span><span lang="EN-US">4</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">次虧損之後!交易</span><span lang="EN-US">e-mini S&P </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">你需要你的帳</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: "Lantinghei TC Heavy"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Lantinghei TC Heavy"; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Lantinghei TC Heavy";">戶</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">金額至少</span><span lang="EN-US">$63,200</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">的保證金需求。這就是為什麼加倍賭注系統不能用。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: red;">Principle #7: Automate your trading<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: red;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">規則七</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">:將你的交易自動化</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Emotions and human errors are the most
common mistakes traders make.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Clearly,
they are to be avoided by any means possible. Especially during fast markets,
it is crucial that you determine the entry and exit points fast and accurately;
otherwise, you might miss a trade or find yourself in a losing position. For
that reason you should automate your trading and look for a trading system that
either already is or can be automated. Automating your trading makes it free of
human emotion. The buy and sell operations are all automatic, hands-free, with
no manual interventions and you can be sure that you make profits when you
should, according to your plan.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">情感與人為錯誤是交易者最普遍的失誤。</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">無疑的,這些失誤應該用盡各種可能方法避免。</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">特別是在快速市場,你快速而準確地決定進出場點位是非常重要的</span><span lang="EN-US"> ; </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">要不然,你可能錯失一個交易或者你發現你在一個輸的局面。為這個理由你應該自動化你的交易而去尋找一個交易系統是已經自動化或可以被自動化。自動化你的交易會使你的交易沒有人性情感因素。買與賣都是自動的,免用手,沒有人工介入。你可以確定依據你的計畫,你應該獲利時你會獲利。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: red;">Principle #8: Have a high percentage of
winning trades<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: red;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">規則八</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">:擁有一個高比率的獲利交易</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Your trading strategy should produce more
than 50% winners. There's no doubt that trading systems with smaller winning
percentages can be profitable, too, but the psychological pressure is enormous.
Taking 7 losers out of 10 trades and not doubting the system takes great
discipline, and many traders can't stand the pressure. After the sixth loser
they start "improving" the system or stop trading it completely.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">你的交易策略應該要有超過</span><span lang="EN-US">50</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">%的勝率。無疑的低勝率的交易系統一樣可以獲利,但心理壓力是非常大的。</span><span lang="EN-US">10</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">次交易</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">次輸而不懷疑交易系統需要極大的紀律,而很多交易者不能忍受這壓力。在六次輸之後,他們開始改善系統或者完全停止此交易系統。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Especially for beginners it is a big help
to gain confidence in your trading and your system if you have a high winning
percentage of more than 65%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">尤其是初學者,如果你的交易系統勝率超過</span><span lang="EN-US">65</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">%那麼高,這將大力的幫助你對你的交易及你的交易系統取得信心。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: red;">Principle #9: Look for a system that is
tested on at least 200 trades<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: red;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">規則九</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">:尋找一個系統至少經過測試</span><span lang="EN-US">200</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">次交易</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">The more trades you use in your backtesting
(without curve-fitting), the higher the probability that your trading system
will succeed in the future. Look at the following table:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">The more trades you have in your
backtesting, the smaller the margin of error, and the higher the probability of
producing profits in the future.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">愈多的交易次數在你的回測,錯誤率就愈少,而未來獲利的機率就愈高。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: red;">Principle #10: Chose a valid backtesting
period<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: red;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">規則十</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">:選擇一個有效的回測期間</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">I recently saw the following ad:
"Since 1994 I've taught thousands of traders worldwide a Simple and
Reliable E-Mini trading methodology".<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">我最近看到一則廣告</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">:”自從</span><span lang="EN-US">1994</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年,我教導過全球成千交易者一個簡單而可靠的</span><span lang="EN-US">E-Mini </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">交易方法”</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">That's very interesting, because the e-mini
S&P was introduced in September 1997, and the e-mini Nasdaq in June 1999,
therefore none of these contracts existed before 1997. What kind of e-mini
trading did this vendor teach from 1994-1997???<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">這是非常有趣的因為</span><span lang="EN-US">e-mini
S&P</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">是在</span><span lang="EN-US">1997</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">月才開始的而</span><span lang="EN-US">e-mini
Nasdaq</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">是在</span><span lang="EN-US">1999</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">6</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">月,因此</span><span lang="EN-US">1997</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">之前沒有任何合約存在。這個賣方在教什麼</span><span lang="EN-US">e-mini</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">交易?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">The same applies to your backtesting: If
you developed an e-mini S&P trading strategy, then you should backtest it
only for the past 2-4 years, because even though the contract has existed since
1997, there was practically no one trading it (see chart below):<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">你的回測也是一樣</span><span lang="EN-US">:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">如果你研發一個</span><span lang="EN-US">e-mini S&P</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">交易策略,那你應該回測過去</span><span lang="EN-US">2-4</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年而已,因為即使合約自從</span><span lang="EN-US">1997</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">即存在,實際上那時並沒有人在交易</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">見上表</span><span lang="EN-US">) :<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Now you should have working method for
separating the good trading system from the poor one. By applying this
checklist you will easily identify trading systems that work and those that
will never make it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-685236810820541656.post-75660948834179751222014-08-29T21:44:00.001+08:002014-08-29T21:44:40.945+08:00Fussen, Germany.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-685236810820541656.post-39042994115409311792014-08-29T21:08:00.001+08:002014-08-29T21:08:18.145+08:00Amsterdam, Netherlands.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-685236810820541656.post-11508245588171559602014-08-24T11:56:00.000+08:002014-08-24T12:02:35.580+08:00Risk vs. Return vs. Time<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-O-EcYorYZsA/U_lZ2X5TKJI/AAAAAAAAE9c/Z6u8nWtqS3I/s1600/Risk%2BFactor.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-O-EcYorYZsA/U_lZ2X5TKJI/AAAAAAAAE9c/Z6u8nWtqS3I/s1600/Risk%2BFactor.bmp" height="320" width="640" /></a></div>
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There is a law that states that your returns are directly proportional to the risk you take.</div>
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Risk can be your money, life, time and etc, it is the cost of getting a return.</div>
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In the financial world, </div>
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Higher Risk = Higher Return</div>
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Higher Return = Higher Risk</div>
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vice versa.</div>
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Example, you are doing a traditional business.</div>
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You invest USD100,000 and get 10 times return on investment within 10years.</div>
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In 10 years you get USD1,000,000 but your risk is still lower than who invested USD1,000,000.</div>
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He can get USD10,000,000 in 10years time.</div>
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It is the same in Forex trading business.</div>
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The more you invest, the return you get is higher than others within the same period of time.</div>
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In order to get high return, either you invest more money or invest in high frequency trading.</div>
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High frequency trading, you can earn very fast but it can makes you lose faster too.</div>
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That's your risk.<br />
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How much return you want, depends on how much risk you can take. It's stressful.</div>
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-685236810820541656.post-4494562844673830202014-08-22T22:16:00.001+08:002014-08-22T22:16:14.210+08:00Zurich, Switzerland.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-685236810820541656.post-50955619382594241062014-08-22T21:41:00.001+08:002014-08-22T22:00:06.323+08:00Geneva, Switzerland.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-685236810820541656.post-14790276705597858582014-08-22T21:18:00.002+08:002014-08-22T21:18:34.905+08:00Lucerne, Switzerland.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-685236810820541656.post-6155821778414041072014-08-22T21:03:00.001+08:002014-08-22T21:03:18.057+08:00Switzerland<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-685236810820541656.post-60719521812055098412014-08-07T21:38:00.000+08:002014-08-07T21:45:32.860+08:00Top 10 Ways New Forex Traders Lose Money"Top 10 Ways New Forex Traders Lose Money<br />
Statistics show that the initial success for new forex traders is disturbingly low. Over time, this trend tends to improve, but for many, it is too late. After posting a series of losses, many new traders will give-up, believing that forex trading is simply not for them. It does not have to be this way.<br />
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<b><span style="color: red; font-size: large;">1.<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Lack of Experience</span></b><br />
Forex trading - like any new initiative - has a learning curve. However, unlike learning a new skill such as learning to play guitar for instance, you are not risking your entire savings while discovering the difference between a major and minor chord. Learning about the currency markets and basic trading principles solely on a trial and error basis is not a recommended approach for gaining the skills necessary to be a successful forex trader.<br />
Most online forex brokers offer a practice version of their trading platform that offers the very same experience as a live trading application. Typically, once you create a practice account, you are free to trade and deal as you wish risking only the "play" money used to seed your account.<br />
With a forex demo account, you can see how the market reacts to economic forces including news events without actually risking your investment capital. However, you must treat this account seriously if you expect to learn from the experience. If you simply shrug off a loss without understanding why the loss occurred, then you are wasting your time and setting yourself up for disappointment. Take advantage of this unique forex market training tool before committing your money to a real forex trading account.<br />
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<b><span style="color: red; font-size: large;">2.<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Unreasonable Expectations</span></b><br />
First off, stop believing all the “get-rich quick” hype still perpetrated by some forex dealers. Yes, there are those that do get rich trading forex but some people also get rich selling houses. In either case, it does not happen overnight and it might take years to gain the experience and insight to turn forex trading into a full-time, successful occupation.<br />
As a new forex trader, if you manage to stay in the game without losing all your money in the first few months as is all-too-common – then you may be able to learn what is required to be profitable. In other words, don’t quit your day job just yet.<br />
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<b><span style="color: red; font-size: large;">3.<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Absence of a Sound Trading Plan</span></b><br />
Next to having unreasonable expectations with regards to the risks associated with forex trading and the amount of time required to be successful, a common mistake made by new traders is the lack of a forex trading plan. In reality, there are two aspects to this plan; an overall objective for your trading activities and a plan for each trade you make.<br />
Your overall objective should include the currencies that you intend to deal in, the amount of leverage you will use, and the amount of time you intend to devote to your trading activities. Your plan must also include a realistic rate of return you expect to achieve. In addition to your overall objectives plan, you also need an exit strategy plan for each trade you make that includes the upper and lower boundaries of the trade.<br />
In other words, you must identify the level at which you will close positions and take your profits (take-profit order) or in the case of a losing trade, the level at which you are prepared to go before you get out of the trade thus limiting your losses (limit order). We’ll talk more about stop-loss and take-profit instructions later.<br />
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<b><span style="color: red; font-size: large;">4.<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Lack of Discipline</span></b><br />
A plan is only of value if you actually have the patience and the discipline to follow it. While this can be difficult, it is necessary if you expect to be successful, and it is this very reason why developing a plan prior to the trade is so fundamental. As rates fluctuate, you can easily get caught up in the market and it is only human nature that you will begin to second-guess your actions. If, for instance, the rate moves up surpassing your original take profit point, you may be tempted to hold out for an even higher return; alternatively, if the price drops below your limit level but you believe there is a big rebound just around the corner, you may be tempted to keep the order open on the hopes of a reversal.<br />
But does either scenario really make sense? If before you entered the trade you had a sound reason for establishing both your take profit and your loss limit levels, how likely is it that conditions have changed so much that now you are prepared to throw your previous assessments out the window in the heat of the battle? Can you be sure that you are not acting on emotion rather than sound analysis?<br />
This is why a plan is so important – it allows you to avoid the emotion that is bound to arise during times of volatility.<br />
Now this is not to say that a trading plan can never be revised – in fact, your overall objectives should be re-examined every few months or even more frequently if required. As well, it may be necessary sometimes to abandon a plan mid-trade if market conditions warrant but this should be the exception and not the norm.<br />
And yes, sometimes the market can be so volatile that no amount of planning will produce positive results. In this case, maybe the best option is simply not to trade until you can get a better handle on things. Never allow yourself to fall into the “I have to do something” trap – sometimes the best plan is to do nothing.<br />
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<span style="color: red; font-size: large;"><b>5.<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Failure to Include Stop-Loss and Take Profit Instructions</b></span><br />
When you place a market order and leave it open – that is, enter a trade at the market price without instructions to close the order – you are in effect, gambling with the total value of your account. For this reason, you should consider adding stop-loss instructions to all open positions.<br />
For instance, if you are holding a long GBP/USD position, you can include a stop-loss instruction that automatically sells your long position if the rate falls to a certain level. In this way, you can limit the amount that you could lose on any given trade – even if you are unable to constantly monitor your account.<br />
Take-profit orders are similar in that they allow you to establish the rate at which you want open positions closed in order to lock-in profits. Again, you simply need to identify the rate at which to take the profits, and the trading system closes the position without further intervention on your part.<br />
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<span style="color: red; font-size: large;"><b>6.<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Excessive Leverage</b></span><br />
Depending on your experience level, trade leverage can be a powerful tool to help you maximize returns, or it can be the cause of your downfall. It is not something to be taken lightly and if you do not understand how it works, don’t trade until you do understand.<br />
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<span style="color: red; font-size: large;"><b>7.<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Holding Too Many Open Trades</b></span><br />
Fighter pilots call it “helmet fire” and it happens when too much is happening around you too quickly for you to react. In the cockpit of a jet fighter, it can get you killed – as a forex trader, you may not end up dead but you will probably end up broke.<br />
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<b><span style="color: red; font-size: large;">8.<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Holding Losing Positions Too Long</span></b><br />
One of the things that really separates seasoned forex traders from those just starting out is their ability to determine when a losing trade is not going to reverse the trend. Rather than “hold and hope”, disciplined traders will take the loss and get out much more quickly.<br />
This is another reason to set protective stops on all your trades; if you include effective stops when you submit a new trade, you can at least limit your losses without having to spend too much time “babysitting” the order. If the trade hits the stop, you will lose the amount committed but you also protect the bulk of your capital, leaving you with funds to move into something else that, hopefully, will be more profitable.<br />
Sometimes, you just have to treat these things as life lessons – learn and move on.<br />
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<span style="color: red; font-size: large;"><b>9.<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Ignoring Rate Spread Fluctuations and the Impact Spreads Have on Profitability</b></span><br />
Exchange rate spreads – the difference between the bid and the ask price – are of utmost importance and directly affect the profitability of each trade. You need to be aware that spread differentials can fluctuate wildly during the day – sometimes to the point of turning a profitable trade into a losing one.<br />
You also need to understand that forex spreads will widen during off-market hours when volumes and liquidity are lower. In addition, spreads tend to widen ahead of important news such as an impending interest rate decision or the latest employment results.<br />
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<span style="color: red; font-size: large;"><b>10.<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Thinking About the “Big Win” More Than Effective Cash Management (AKA Greed)</b></span><br />
This one is pretty straight-forward – greed; or more correctly, how greed can cause you to enter into ridiculous trades. This must be the same gene that causes some people to keep “doubling-down” even when the odds are so against them that it make no sense at all. If you want to gamble, go to Vegas."<br />
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Source: Lost track...<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-685236810820541656.post-56821492549945986742014-08-06T21:05:00.000+08:002014-08-12T21:37:17.326+08:00Financial Freedom or Financial Failure?In the financial world, only 20% are successors.<br />
They are top-level employee, high income self-employed, successful businessman and successful investor.<br />
<br />
How much you can earn, it depends on how much risk you can take and the plan you have.<br />
Low Risk = Low Reward / High Risk = High Reward<br />
Degree of Risk / Reward = Amount Losses / Profits in a given period.<br />
<br />
There is a law that states that your returns are directly proportional to the risk you take.<br />
<br />
Investment ( High Risk )<br />
Business ( Above Average Risk )<br />
Self-Employed ( Average Risk )<br />
Employed ( Low Risk )<br />
<br />
Risk for being employed always come late, either no increment on salary, voluntary separation scheme or not getting promoted.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-685236810820541656.post-11656028735874395212014-08-05T22:13:00.000+08:002014-08-05T22:13:10.618+08:00Blackpool, England.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-685236810820541656.post-85268414273199981712014-08-05T21:33:00.000+08:002014-08-05T21:38:05.000+08:00Inverness, Scotland.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-685236810820541656.post-48953803891940000552014-08-05T21:04:00.000+08:002014-08-05T21:04:41.837+08:00Liverpool, England.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-685236810820541656.post-33651276322237029462014-08-05T20:13:00.001+08:002014-08-05T20:13:46.701+08:00Edinburgh, Scotland.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-685236810820541656.post-72377945077852734282014-08-02T20:49:00.001+08:002014-08-04T20:47:04.430+08:00Prague, Czech Republic.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-685236810820541656.post-45373359384702664422014-08-02T17:08:00.001+08:002014-08-02T17:13:32.822+08:00Cambridge, England.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-685236810820541656.post-13028980741114319432014-08-02T16:21:00.002+08:002014-08-02T16:24:13.547+08:00Bath, England.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-685236810820541656.post-36243014806199977702014-07-30T22:16:00.001+08:002014-07-30T22:16:26.481+08:00Stonehenge, England.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-685236810820541656.post-13539603950136746262014-07-29T18:13:00.000+08:002014-07-29T18:20:51.687+08:00Budapest, Hungary.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-685236810820541656.post-7303498314107501152014-07-29T14:56:00.003+08:002014-07-29T14:56:33.379+08:00Probability<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-4dYrakxL_sg/U9dEgdqjwfI/AAAAAAAADZw/g-A70IbcIDg/s1600/Probability.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-4dYrakxL_sg/U9dEgdqjwfI/AAAAAAAADZw/g-A70IbcIDg/s1600/Probability.jpg" height="474" width="640" /></a></div>
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A group of small red circle, big red circle, small green circle and big green circle.</div>
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50% of the chances you will get two circles with the same colour.</div>
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25% of the chances you will get one particular colour and size of circle.</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-685236810820541656.post-56262099510246473802014-07-29T14:43:00.002+08:002014-07-29T14:44:02.964+08:00Engelberg, Switzerland.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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